The recession has only temporarily slowed the onset of workforce
shortages in the Canadian economy, according to the latest Conference
Board of Canada publication outlining lessons from the recession and
financial crisis.
“Job losses have resulted in temporary slackness in Canada’s labour
market, and boomers may be temporarily delaying their retirements due
to the plunge in equity markets. However, even if some baby boomers
decide to delay retirement, it will likely be for only a short period
of time,” said Pedro Antunes,
Director National and Provincial Forecast. “If organizations fail to
adequately plan for tightening labour markets, they could lose out on
employees with the required skills, which could dampen their future
growth prospects.”
From peak to trough, about 400,000 Canadians lost their jobs during the
2008-09 recession. If the recovery progresses as expected, the impact
of this recession on real GDP and jobs will have been much softer than
in the 1981-82 recession and even the 1991-92 recession. Even at its
peak, the unemployment rate through this cycle will still be lower than
the average unemployment rate between 1976 and 1999.
The single most important factor shaping the labour market over the
next two decades will be the retirement of the baby boom cohort. The
first members of this cohort were reaching retirement age as equity
markets around the world tumbled. Boomers may hold off on retirement
until stock market losses are at least partially recouped. Previous
Conference Board research found that expected retirement income had a
significant impact on the retirement decision.
However, older, experienced workers have been largely unaffected by the
current recession—providing just a glimpse of how tight labour markets
might get for this cohort as baby-boomers start to retire in earnest.
Women have generally been spared from job losses compared to men. Over
the past 12 months, 320,000 men lost their jobs, compared to 80,000
women—a 4 to 1 ratio.
By far, youth have been the hardest hit. Job losses for those aged
15-24 have totalled 225,000 during the past 12 months—56 percent of all
reductions, occurring in a cohort that accounts for only 15 per cent of
the workforce.
Sectors such as manufacturing and construction, which have
disproportionately more male workers, suffered the largest job losses
in the Canadian economy. Young men, many of them construction workers,
have been particularly hard hit. Job losses have been harshest on
unskilled workers—wage pressures remain strong for many of the skilled
trades in the construction industry.